J.J. McCullough: Why the Iowa caucuses matter so much in US elections

 

[VIDEO] I suppose this could go under the tag "Shedd School of Pol. Sci."

This video was first uploaded by J.J. McCullough on YouTube in February 2020. I also want to add at around the same time Mr. Beat who did a video about the Iowa Caucuses also uploaded a video about the Iowa Caucuses. You might have seen that on the blog at that time in February 2020. Mr. Beat also appears in the above video.

McCullough did far more coverage of the Democratic side of the caucuses than the Republican side because President Donald Trump basically had the advantage of the incumbency as he ran unsuccessfully for re-election. Get a load of Joe Biden in early 2020 who would become the 46th POTUS speaking in a school gym presumably campaigning in Iowa.

Anyway this goes a bit further in depth about the Iowa Caucus. McCullough during the course of this 20 min. video actually takes a trip during that period into Iowa to visit various events by Democrat hopefuls as former Vice President Joe Biden or Andrew Yang (who's since left the Democratic Party and formed his own political party). He even speaks with a "delegate-in-waiting" for Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar who discusses the process of becoming a delegate to the Democratic Nat'l Convention.

Just look at this video as a Canadian who's observing a Presidential race and the complexities of that. Each state run their own election especially the primary races which are on different days during the spring. Iowa and New Hampshire kicks of the presidential primaries and then by March other states make their own choices. Usually the Iowa Caucuses, New Hampshire primary are followed by primaries in South Carolina and Nevada. Then in March you get Super Tuesday probably by then those Presidential hopefuls who see they have no opportunity for victory drop out. 

Also Iowa and New Hampshire generally show who in both parties will be the likely nominee. It's not 100% foolproof but it's the general rule of thumb and is why they do get the most attention in a Presidential election year.

At this point we're just about to go on two years before we start this process all over again in 2024. We're more than halfway through the term of President Joe Biden.

Mr. Beat livestream on the 2020 presidential race

[VIDEO] Mr. Beat is going to further discuss his 2020 election video in a livestream which is going on as I type this as of 4:20 PM - and yes I will timestamp this post at 2:30 PM. He talks about things he leaves out in his video from Friday morning such as further discussion of voter fraud which is where I got keyed in when I clicked on this stream.

Mr. Beat on the 2020 Presidential election

 

[VIDEO] I feel as if Mr. Beat left out some issues from the 2020 race, although he only referenced them. Remember not too long before Election Day he and another YouTuber predicted a Biden presidency considering the issues occuring last year with the pandemic and the economy.

He dismissed the issues of voter fraud. It's true that many federal judges appointed by Donald Trump wouldn't touch the election fraud issues. It's true that his own administration found no evidence of voter fraud especially as announced by President Trump's Attorney General Bill Baar. That doesn't mean something weird wasn't going on during the voting count on election day in some places around the country especially the disputed states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia or even Arizona for example.

Also I think it's true that there wasn't great enthusiasm for Joe Biden who has been President since January 20, 2021. I even had someone pull me aside and said while they just believed we needed to get Trump out of the Presidency, some of what Biden has proposed policy wise just doesn't make much sense.

Is there an echo chamber on social media? I think that's true, even I gravitate towards certain partisan sources which I trust and believe is more fair. There are ways for me to hear the other side and what they think, however, an echo chamber is a problem especially on social media. If you live in your own bubble I think it could have some awful results. And were seeing this with the extreme divisions in America right now.

Mr. Beat did mention the coronavirus and the racial issues that went on last year even referring to the murder of George Floyd. In my mind I put those two events together the economic issues with this global pandemic and the violence that happened after George Floyd's death as he was arrested by police officers showed how unsettled this nation was. And with a quick reference to the January 6, 2021 insurrection it further underscores how unsettled this nation remained almost a year after Trump declared a national emergency due to the pandemic.

2020 is one odd year and one I hope we can recover from. Though 2021 and a new administration coming in doesn't seem that promising.

How did 2021 start?

 First and foremost happy new year.

2021 has definitely started off with a bang, and unfortunate we didn't go a whole week into the year until a major incident took place. And we're still going through the fallout. Let me be clear I don't care about the politics of anyone involved in the property damage and the breach of our US Capitol in Washington, DC. All involved must be prosecuted.

Regardless the fallout so far includes the impeachment of the outgoing President - incidentally the Capitol was breached just as the US Congress met to certify the electoral votes for the 2020 race. I don't think this will help unify America it may further divide and certainly conflict with the incoming president's calls for greater unity after a very tumultuous year.

Anyone who went to a rally before the breach of the Capitol are suffering their own consequence which is why I'm sharing this article with you. A teacher in Wisconsin had been suspended because allegedly he shared a video with regards to the 2020 race. The video disputed the 2020 election as President Trump had up until the events of January 6, 2021. What you will see in that article is that the claims of the outgoing President Trump are largely considered baseless or debunked and is considered controversial politics and also note he allegedly attending this rally in D.C. on the 6th. He had a passion about election integrity.

As stated we're going to see a lot of fallout for a while as Trump gets impeached again although he will be leaving office on January 20th. I want everyone to remember America has a history of free speech and expression. And the fallout of this will also challenge the rights to free speech and expression. There are plenty who believe this election was "stolen" or otherwise there were some irregularities that tilted the election in a certain direction.

President Trump and his team had attempted to lawfully challenge the election results so far no court has been willing to hear the challenges. The S.C.O.T.U.S. even has a hearing with regards to the results in Pennsylvania scheduled for after the January 20th inauguration. Either way most of us have heard what was said by Trump as far as his election loss, and we know the media's response to it. It's too bad that a well stated sentiment became a basis for more division when we should get at the truth.

Either way I try to maintain my optimism and hopefully a divided America will heal and unify. I'm not happy about the last two months to be honest, however, after seeing the issues with this pandemic I can't wait to see a nation finally settling down.

Mr. Beat: How to Predict Who Will Win the Next Election

[VIDEO] Well it starts off with Mr. Beat and his guest Ethan talking about who they think will win in 2020, however, that revelation was censored. They further go over playing with this online game called Campaign Trail which you're free to play.

Mr. Beat and Ethan were talking about the various elections they played with in American history. The results they had were quite surprising.

I may need to check out Ethan's channel Let's Talk Elections. He's a young man already interested in politics.

Also watch the vid for the various rules governing how they are able to predict who'll win next week. And then after that vote and we'll see what the results will turn up.

I think that should end this week's Mr. Beat binge....

Mr. Beat on the 2016 Presidential Election

 

[VIDEO] I guess we're binge watching Mr. Beat videos. I'm doing this because next week we're having a Presidential Election. We're in unprecedented times so the public is encouraged to vote early whether by mail, absentee, or even vote early. Many still like myself plans to vote on Election Day.

So to see where we are right now in 2020 politically we should revisit the 2016 election. Although 62,980,160 popular votes were cast for Donald Trump and Mike Pence they won the election with 304 electoral votes due to the quirky nature of the electoral college. The runner ups was Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine with 65,845,063 popular votes cast and the main thing is that they had only 227 electoral votes. In the electoral college you need 270 votes to win outright. The number of popular votes you win matters less if you don't have enough electoral votes.

2016 was one of those odd elections accordingly. President Trump is the first President to have had very little political experience before his election. Indeed he had never ever held elective office before he took the oath of office in January 2017.

On the other hand former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was touted as well qualified - not only was she the former first lady of the United States she was also a US Senator from New York - she was also the first woman to secure a major party nomination for President. As it turned out this was an historic election of sorts regardless.

I'll let Mr. Beat give you the rundown of 2016. I wonder how he might recap the 2020 elections once the tally is finally counted.

Mr. Beat: Why the Electoral College is terrible?

 

[VIDEO] To set up for tomorrow's post which I will make live at 9:00 AM Tuesday, I will today share Mr. Beat's video from almost two years ago about his criticisms of the Electoral College. 

While voters right now are voting early or by mail to cast their ballots or waiting until Election Day to make their choices for President of the United States know one thing. When we cast our ballot for President Donald Trump & his running mate Vice President Mike Pence or for former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate US Senator Kamala Harris (D-Calif) and of course whatever other third party candidates that are on the ballot, we're actually voting for a slate of electors. That's true in other states also.

Usually when we vote for a Republican, Democrat or a third party the parties themselves will have a slate of electors who will actually cast their vote for President & Vice President. By convention and not law they will vote for their party's candidates. This doesn't always happen as the US Supreme Court had to settle the issue of "faithless electors" who choose not to vote for their pledged candidates for President & Vice President.

Either way people have been complaining about this system for years enshrined in our US Constitution. Illinois has current 20 votes - and since we're in a census year that can change. Those 20 electoral votes are a combination of our 18 congressional seats - and if this state loses enough population  we might go down one congressional district - and our two US Senate seats. That's true for every state and the District of Columbia although they're represented in Congress by a single non-voting delegate in the US House of Representatives, however, they have three electoral votes as if they're represented by two US Senators.

Either way the argument you might have heard is that in support of the Electoral College is that if we went to full popular vote only certain regions or states will determine the next President of the United States. So they might frequently cite New York, Massachusetts or California where most likely candidates will have to campaign hardest in to win the election. Meanwhile they may ignore the rest of the country including god-forbid Illinois.

Another argument about the electoral college is from what happened in 2016 which I will also share with you from Mr. Beat. President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence won the election over former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and US Senate Tim Kaine in the electoral college, however, Trump/Pence lost the popular vote to Clinton/Kaine. 2016 wasn't the first time this happened, you might remember something like this happened in 2000 with Bush vs. Gore and there was a whole Supreme Court case about that. Bush won in the electoral college ultimately, however, he lost the popular vote.

Which brings up another state, we have essentially 50 states & Washington, D.C. maintaining separate elections. So if you're concerned about some states getting ignored consider how President Trump won, he knew which states he could win vs those he probably couldn't. It surprised observers when he won Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Those are shockers because they normally vote blue in Presidential elections and are referred to as part of the blue wall.

I also want you to note this isn't the first time I shared a video about the electoral college here.

Regardless, let's hear it from you. Is it time the United States of America ditch the electoral college? Do you think it remains relevant in presidential elections?

The Cook County State's Attorney Race

The above flyer I saw taped on a bus shelter on 95th Street Sunday. This is the first time I've seen such an accusation although if the State's Attorney is unpopular amongst some parts of the electorate it's due to her offices handling of the Jussie Smollett affair - Smollett formerly starred in the popular TV series Empire had allegedly engaged in a hoax claiming racists wearing a Make America Great Again ballcap had assaulted him.

Regardless Foxx easily won the Democrat primary in March even if it was affected by the coronavirus. And she does have a Republican opponent and I mentioned that in passing on Twitter as Chicago Fraternal Order of Police President John Catanzara noted the Republican opponent during his appearance on FOX News Channel.

#IngrahamAngle I hate to say it John Catanzara, but I doubt most of Chicago or Cook County knows who Kim Foxx's Republican opponent is. Who is he? Where is he?

— The Sixth Ward (@TheSixthWard) July 22, 2020

I found this article from March 2020 discussing the Republican opponent Pat O'Brien a former judge who was elected as such as a Democrat in 2006

After cruising through the GOP primary Tuesday, O’Brien outlined his plans to beat incumbent Democrat Kim Foxx in a live-streamed news conference, thanking his family, friends and “everyone who voted against Kim Foxx.”

“We really have to clean up the mess that she’s made,” O’Brien said, not even a minute into his remarks. “I think we have to restore justice to the community. We have to make it safer for people in all of the kinds of activities that they do, and we have to remember that the state’s attorney’s duty is to protect the victims of crime.”
...
O’Brien said he’s taken a hard look at the state’s attorneys office, and while he sees Foxx’s handling of the Jussie Smollett case as “a violation of oath and a lack of integrity” he said the office is “under producing in other areas.”

The former judge said that under Foxx’s administration, fewer than 200 jury trials have been held in 15 felony courtrooms, which works out to less than four trials per courtroom each year. He said that from the 1980s until the first decade of this century that number was much higher. He also said Foxx has “lost more trials and gun cases than she’s won in each of the three years” and called for quicker trials.

This article noted that it's been almost 25 since a Republican had been elected Cook County State's Attorney. I vaguely remember him, he was a man named Jack O'Malley. Perhaps some of you remember those "Back Jack" political ads from back in the day.

Either way, 2020 has proven to be an odd year in a variety of ways. We got this pandemic and this unrest over racial injustice. I thought Trump could be re-elected President and right now he's limping because of those two ongoing crises. Perhaps a Republican could win the State's Attorneys office this year.

However, Cook County seemed to have trended more and more Democrat over the years and since O'Brien seems to have hardly campaigned since his primary I don't see a change in Cook County. Then again who knows time will tell..

CNBC: Why The Electoral College Exists

[VIDEO] The electoral college is in the U.S. Constitution. Each state has x amount of electoral votes based on the number of representatives to the US House of Representatives and the two senators to the US Senate. Illinois currently has 20 electoral votes and every 10 years per the US Census (it's that time now in 2020) the number of seats in the House of Representatives could change.

Due to population changes in Illinois it's possible our electoral vote count will go down to 19 or more. It's often in the news that the population of this state is declining and especially downstate is losing population. If people are moving to Chicagoland it may not offset the number of people who are leaving Illinois.

It must be noted that the electoral college is a controversial subject. In the 2016 election, Donald Trump was elected President of the United States. He won the majority of electoral votes, however, his Democrat opponent Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. Granted while President Trump is a public figure where there's hardly any in between as far as like or dislike this had been one controversy surrounding him.

The quirk of electing a President on Election Day in November is that while we make our choices for that office we're really electing a slate of electors. These electors are in state capitols throughout the nation to formally cast their votes for President. In most states and definitely Illinois if you win that state's popular votes you will win that state's electoral votes. Some states decides electoral votes according to a congressional district. Occasionally we do have what we call faithless electors who decide that they don't want to vote for their pledged presidential candidate.

Here's the funny thing about the electoral college, electors can actually vote for who they want to vote for. It's their job to elect the President, never mind the convention of pledging your vote as part of a slate to a particular candidate according to the wishes of the voters.

Needless to say the debate regarding the electoral college has led to calls for its abolition.

It's time for the Iowa caucuses...

[VIDEO] I've been wanting to mark this year a presidential election year and let's start with Mr. Beat who covers the Iowa Caucuses one of the first major campaigns in the presidential election. The caucuses takes place today on Monday and the stakes are primarily among the many Democrats running for the presidential nomination - to be able to run against Republican President Donald Trump.

I suppose the questions that are being asked in this video is how effective are the Presidential Iowa caucuses in predicting who will win not only the nomination of their party to run for President? How effective are these caucuses in predicting who will be elected President? And how do foreigners such as a Canadian interviewed here view the idea of citizens helping to determine a party's nominee for President?