Timcast IRL: Prof Who Predicts Kamala VICTORY Claims Trump CAN’T WIN, But His Own Model Says Trump Will WIN

 

[VIDEO] Prof. Allan Lichtman uses trends and history to predict how any given election will go. He has gotten some attention in the past month predicting possibly a Vice President Kamala Harris victory in November.

Prof. Licthman uses thirteen keys which was looked over in terms of the coming presidential election by Tim Pool with his guests on the IRL podcast. Stole this from Wikipedia although how it's looked at in the podcast it's not necessarily in the same exact order.

Key 1: Party Mandate

Key 2: No primary contest

Key 3: Incumbent seeking election - eh false

Key 4: No third party - true

Key 5: Strong short-term economy

Key 6: Strong long-term economy

Key 7: Major policy change

Key 8: No social unrest

Key 9: No scandal

Key 10: No foreign policy or military failure

Key 11: Foreign policy or military success

Key 12: Charismatic incumbent - false

Key 13: Uncharismatic challenger - debatably false

I've left most of those false and would prefer to let Lichtman explain why his keys describe a VP Harris election victory.

If six or more of these 13 keys are false the incumbent party loses. In 2024, the incumbent party in the White House are the Democrats. However, President Joe Biden chose to drop out of the race weeks before the DNC convention in Chicago. Vice President Kamala Harris took Biden's place at the top of the ballot, however, there was no primary challenge and there were no issues at the Democratic convention in August. Also it sort of helps that VP Harris isn't the incumbent President, however, she serves under current President Biden.

Everything else I won't comment on, however, Lichtman has set his keys to at least to four which for him predicts a Democrat win in 2024. However, as you see by my own statement so some select keys I have my doubts.

Yes Trump is divisive so I can understand why charisma could be an issue there. Kamala as the "incumbent", however, is lacking the charisma department herself. 

Let's not forget and even Lichtman might emphasize, who wins in this election isn't up to his keys. It's up to you as the voter so don't take these predictions for granted. Cast your ballot for the candidate of your choice!