Timcast IRL: Prof Who Predicts Kamala VICTORY Claims Trump CAN’T WIN, But His Own Model Says Trump Will WIN

 

[VIDEO] Prof. Allan Lichtman uses trends and history to predict how any given election will go. He has gotten some attention in the past month predicting possibly a Vice President Kamala Harris victory in November.

Prof. Licthman uses thirteen keys which was looked over in terms of the coming presidential election by Tim Pool with his guests on the IRL podcast. Stole this from Wikipedia although how it's looked at in the podcast it's not necessarily in the same exact order.

Key 1: Party Mandate

Key 2: No primary contest

Key 3: Incumbent seeking election - eh false

Key 4: No third party - true

Key 5: Strong short-term economy

Key 6: Strong long-term economy

Key 7: Major policy change

Key 8: No social unrest

Key 9: No scandal

Key 10: No foreign policy or military failure

Key 11: Foreign policy or military success

Key 12: Charismatic incumbent - false

Key 13: Uncharismatic challenger - debatably false

I've left most of those false and would prefer to let Lichtman explain why his keys describe a VP Harris election victory.

If six or more of these 13 keys are false the incumbent party loses. In 2024, the incumbent party in the White House are the Democrats. However, President Joe Biden chose to drop out of the race weeks before the DNC convention in Chicago. Vice President Kamala Harris took Biden's place at the top of the ballot, however, there was no primary challenge and there were no issues at the Democratic convention in August. Also it sort of helps that VP Harris isn't the incumbent President, however, she serves under current President Biden.

Everything else I won't comment on, however, Lichtman has set his keys to at least to four which for him predicts a Democrat win in 2024. However, as you see by my own statement so some select keys I have my doubts.

Yes Trump is divisive so I can understand why charisma could be an issue there. Kamala as the "incumbent", however, is lacking the charisma department herself. 

Let's not forget and even Lichtman might emphasize, who wins in this election isn't up to his keys. It's up to you as the voter so don't take these predictions for granted. Cast your ballot for the candidate of your choice! 

Sept. 10, 2024 - Presidential Debate

 

[VIDEO] So far there will only be two debates between these two Presidential candidates - Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Back in June, former President Donald Trump debated current President Joe Biden and it was such a disaster that people were calling for President Biden to drop out of the race which he did before the DNC Convention in Chicago. Republicans already were contending since he became President in 2021 that he was not mentally capable of being president and for many even some Democrats he showed how much he slowed down in the June debate.

His Vice President Kamala Harris replaced him as the Democrat's nominee for President. She accepted her party's nomination for President in Chicago at the convention. And she took Pres. Biden's place in the debate which was held and broadcast on ABC in early September.

Some takeaways, even though it has been a whole month.

What dominated the headlines on FOX News and perhaps more conservative outlets was that there was a Haitian migrant problem in Springfield, Ohio. There were reports of migrants eating wild animals and also preying upon people's pets. 

For Trump, immigration is an issue he has campaigned on. We all have something to say about the migrants that have been transported from the southern border to mostly "sanctuary" cities & states. However, in my head this who issue of migrants eating pets shouldn't have been brought up in this debate as even police in Springfield have dismissed the allegations that these migrants were eating pets.

Also the Vice President isn't exactly known for her policy chops. She doesn't answer questions and she hardly does press conferences and the interviews she has done weren't exactly slam dunks either. She may have outperformed Trump in this debate, however, I'm not sure if that's saying much.

We know what Trump brings to the table in these debates and I would dare say VP Harris brings things to these debates also. Harris was likely to use the woman and race card in these debates and unfortunately there are those who will respond to that.

We're closer to election day now than we were in September and its likely there will be no other debates before November. When this debate was over Harris publicly declared she was ready for another one and Trump put the brakes on any future debates.

I'm sure Trump knows he didn't perform well and Harris found out what she could do to make him respond. Regardless, how beneficial are these debates when in such a polarized nation performance by either side isn't going to move the needle significantly in either direction?

Monsieur Z: The Reform That Could Fix The Electoral College

 [VIDEO] We're in an election year and this subject will likely come up depending upon the outcome.

I could see this election being a situation where like in 2016 or 2000 the popular vote winner loses in the Electoral College. How does that happen because the President of the United States isn't elected directly by the people. He (or she) is elected by the Electoral College.

As Monsieur Z explains in most states when we vote for our choice for President in November (or when you early vote) you're actually voting for the slate of electors who will actually vote for the President. Usually these slate of electors are pledged to vote for their party's nominee for President. Whichever candidate wins the popular vote in a given state they win their party's slate of electors.

Of course as Mr. Z explains that practice had evolved overtime. The system was conceived at a time when political parties weren't even a consideration and once they became important then the politicians tried to game the system and get it to benefit them.

So, what to do when the nation as a whole is polarized? Also what about the polarization of different states?

In that second question let's say a state is a lot like Illinois downstate may vote Republican, however, the Chicago area votes heavily Democrat. And the Chicago area has most of the state's population. Meaning odds are the state will vote heavily Democrat for President.

What if to mitigate some of these nuances from state-to-state you redraw the states. You attempt to evenly distribute the regional differences of each state to ensure better representation of these differences. That's the Utahism Mr. Z is discussing?

Regardless this Electoral College is something that we will be discussing as we get closer to Election Day. Are you voting?

CBS News VP Debate

 

[VIDEO] CBS News had broadcast this debate (and aired on all the major news networks) between US Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN).

Unlike the debate last month between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris I will show this one today. That debate will come later.

This wasn't a particularly exciting debate, but I didn't detect any attacks or even any baits between these two candidates. There were some common ground seen between these two men, especially when on some issues there were a stark divide.

Both men by my eyes came off very well. I'm not so sure about Gov. Walz but then again I have no real issues with Sen. Vance. I'm glad to see Vance would be supportive of Walz if he gets elected. Hopefully Walz would do they same.

What was noted by some pundits and by my eyes Walz seemed very nervous. I would day say for me Walz at times seemed to have the "deer in headlights" look. Some will say he didn't belong on that stage, and well who am I to judge as I'm not up there. And nor is anyone else saying that although many of them are on TV and I'm not.

What I would say is that both VP Harris and Gov. Walz come from states that are most favorable to them as far as electoral process. Especially the Vice President. I don't know what the margin of victory for Walz in his elections for the Governor of Minnesota, however, that state is considered a solid blue state so who knows being on that national stage for a debate might be new territory for him.

I didn't see this debate from the beginning, missed out on the main event for NXT on The CW network (not a major network). So there were some portions of the debate that was missed but I'm glad I saw it.

PBS Eons: When the Earth "ate" a planet?

 

[VIDEO] The real title of this video is how was the moon created?

While the science isn't exactly settled on this question, what this video argues is that the moon was created after a collision between Earth and an hypothetical ancient planet known as Theia. Really fascinating to know what we found out about the composition of the moon once we collected samples of moon rocks from the Apollo missions.

Inside the Oval Office - Presidential Secrets

 

[VIDEO] The history of the Oval Office has fascinated me. And this video from Beyond Facts will answer many questions about it.

The history of this office which was only first constructed in 1909 and was moved to it's current site much later. The history of the Resolute desk, secret compartments, redecorations, or even surveillance devices. As far as surveillance devices just think Richard Nixon and his use of making audio recordings in the oval office, and as we know now it got him in trouble. He resigned over it! 

Capitol Fax: Illinois school district that called police on students “every other day” agrees to reform disciplinary practices

 I read through this and found this interesting. Should police be called for disciplinary issues at school?

This district is in downstate Illinois and it's a small district and often has far more arrests than they have students.  I may also recognize that many of these students come from backgrounds that isn't exactly conducive to better behavior.

What makes sense to me is that a school should be equipped to handle behaviorial issues and not have to rely on police to intervew.

Illinois school district that called police on students “every other day” agrees to reform disciplinary practices https://t.co/qdAaZkBTng

— Capitol Fax (@capitolfax) September 6, 2024

Via CapFax