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Thursday, November 14, 2024

Touring the Home of Abraham Lincoln plus his Old Neighborhood

 

[VIDEO] I'm sure another video of a visit to this site in Springfield, ILL was shared here on this blog. Abraham Lincoln's home is a national historic monument located in Illinois' capital city.

The home you see here was where Lincoln lived until shortly before he became President of the United States. As you may know he was a legendary President of the United States often seen as the hero of the American Civil War and the man who freed the slaves.

I look forward to my own visit to this site and other sites down there in Springfield.

Monday, November 11, 2024

60 Minutes: How President-elect Trump won Pennsylvania

 

[VIDEO] To be honest there were some aspects of this story I wish was handled differently. They had to mention that President Trump is a convicted felon. Then they mentioned those people who were an election denier (2020 race).

What is accurate is that the Democrats misread the electorate. That although Trump has his flaws (yeah being a felon isn't necessarily a flaw, there are much more real flaws than that), a lot of people chose him over Vice President Kamala Harris. No one uses the term "kitchen table" issues, but that term would be the key one to use here.

The cost of housing, groceries, and let's not forget about gas. Those were issues that people were following throughout these last four years of the Biden presidency. And also as a consideration people might remember Trump's presidency at least before the pandemic in 2020.

It's amazing that this was a landslide. Trump's victory in 2016 he lost in the popular vote but he was able to get a majority of electoral votes to secure the presidency. This year he won in both the popular vote and electoral votes. He was able to sweep such battleground states as North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and most recently Arizona.

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania certainly helped Trump secure the presidency for the second time.

One last takeway, there was no enthusiasm for the Vice President who sought to become America's first woman president. She had a lot of flaw and the more voters knew about her, I'm sure those flaws turned them off.

As I've learned about voter turnout. Let's say a particular base isn't that enthused by a candidate they're most likely to vote for they won't vote. They may just stay home instead. As with 2016 there was more enthusiasm for President Trump.

Saturday, November 9, 2024

Grover Cleveland

 On Tuesday night, 45th President of the United States Donald Trump (2017-2021) became only the second man to have served one term, lost his re-election bid, and then get elected to yet another term as President. He defeated in a landslide Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday and was able to repeat his feat from 2016. Better still he not only wins in the Electoral College, he also wins handily in the popular vote - something he didn't do in 2016.

He shares this historical footnote with only one other man, his name is Grover Cleveland who was the 22nd (1885-1889) & 24th (1893-1897) President of the United States. Oh and an interesting footnote here, just as happened with Trump in 2016, Cleveland actually won the popular vote in 1892 and yet lost in the Electoral College to his successor Benjamin Harrison - the 23rd President (1889-1893).

Grover Cleveland

I'm sharing this most recent story I found this morning from Spectrum News. While it appears to have only been published to YouTube a day ago just from the way they were talking it had to have been produced before Election Day 2024. [VIDEO]

Thursday, October 31, 2024

Mr. Beat talks about 'October surprises'

 

[VIDEO] The term October surprise originated during the 1980 Presidential race between Pres. Jimmy Carter and future President Ronald Reagan. Basically the surprise would be beneficial to Pres. Carter especially if it involved the release of the hostages in Iran which didn't happen after Carter was out of office. The Iranian hostage crisis was the story of that day.

Basically October surprises as Mr. Beat explains seems to be aimed to be beneficial to a candidate or often very negative towards another candidate. And we learn October surprises have a long history in American politics even if it wasn't always known as such.

The original term for October surprises before 1980 and certainly during the 19th Century - the first "October surprise" was during the 1840 Presidential Race between Pres. Martin Van Buren and future President William Henry Harrison..

After the election of 1844, October Surprises were known as "roorbacking". Based on a book that implied that future Pres. James K. Polk had branded his slaves which was proven false and force a newspaper that published the story to apologize. The book "Roorback's Tour Through the Southern and Western States in the year 1836".

A current example of an October surprise in the 2024 race might be allegations of former Pres. Donald Trump's alleged affinity for Adolph Hitler and the Nazi party. That's been going around during the last few weeks of October. Also the comments of a comedian at a Trump rally making a distasteful joke about the American territory of Puerto Rico. It remains to be seen if that will make an impact in next week's Presidential election. 

We're less than one week away! 

Friday, October 25, 2024

PBS Frontline - The VP Choice: Vance vs. Walz

 

[VIDEO] Another look at the Presidential running mates for 2024 U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) running with former Pres. Donald Trump vs. Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) running with Vice President Kamala Harris. This documentary looks at the evolution of both men.

It was reported when Sen. Vance became Trump's pick how he used to be very opposed to President Trump and then later he came around. And it was enough for him to be the VP running mate.

And then Walz as a school teacher and then later a congressman and Governor of Minnesota.

Is there anything you got from the story of both men?

Hasan Minhaj: Illinois' billionaire Gov. J.B. Pritzker

 

[VIDEO] Pretty good interview. 

They even touched upon the corrupt reputation of the office of IL governor. Pritzker even joked that he told his son there's a good chance of him going to prison.

Eh, Pritzker's a Democrat but dude, c'mon. You got to set the standard for the office it already has a terrible repution from past Governors, especially the more recent ones. From Otto Kerner, Daniel Walker (what he did had little to do with what he did as Governor to be fair), George Ryan (really same thing it kept him from running for a second term & what did him in was what happened when he was our Secretary of State), and of course our most recent example a man named Rod Blagojevich.

Gov. Pritzker espouses "progressive" values. He spoke about this often in this interview. I'm not a progressive and a lot of his policy agenda I don't agree with, however, unlike some of his more recent predecessors he's actually governing and for that I give him credit. Now if only we could find a Republican who can espouse conservative values for this state.

He did sort of touch about his progressive income tax (a graduated income tax) which failed in front of voters in 2020. He attributes this in part to the pandemic I would agree however he would state that the pandemic didn't enable him to knock on doors. I would say because of the economic downturn as a result of the pandemic probably caused voters to say no.

Also his 2018 election. He said he needed to defeat the then incumbent governor Bruce Rauner who had enough money to self-fund. And to be honest Rauner was terrible and of course he wasn't governing. Two years without a budget with social service agencies forced to shut down because of it.

I suppose the question I wish was asked. Will Pritzker run for a third term? Or is he eying a White House run?

Monday, October 21, 2024

60 Minutes: This Wisconsin county has backed the winning presidential candidate for the last 6 elections

 

[VIDEO] Door County, Wisconsin right at the top of the eastern peninsula of the state. This county could "decide" the the next P.O.T.U.S. And Wisconsin is a battleground state.

In the 2016 election Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania made the difference and handed the 46th P.O.T.U.S. Donald Trump the White House. Those states proved pivotal for Joe Biden in 2020 where he was elected the 47th P.O.T.U.S. and he effectively flipped those states back to blue. Oh yeah let's not forget nominally these are often blue states. Perhaps Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are more purple than blue.

And also add that 2016 and 2020 the results in those elections for President were very close. Narrow margins and in 2020 certainly in Detroit, MI or Philadelphia, PA there were allegations of "voter fraud".

Regardless, whether you vote early or wait for election day next month vote. Make sure it counts, the race shouldn't just be "decided" by one county in the whole nation! 

Wednesday, October 9, 2024

Timcast IRL: Prof Who Predicts Kamala VICTORY Claims Trump CAN’T WIN, But His Own Model Says Trump Will WIN

 

[VIDEO] Prof. Allan Lichtman uses trends and history to predict how any given election will go. He has gotten some attention in the past month predicting possibly a Vice President Kamala Harris victory in November.

Prof. Licthman uses thirteen keys which was looked over in terms of the coming presidential election by Tim Pool with his guests on the IRL podcast. Stole this from Wikipedia although how it's looked at in the podcast it's not necessarily in the same exact order.

Key 1: Party Mandate

Key 2: No primary contest

Key 3: Incumbent seeking election - eh false

Key 4: No third party - true

Key 5: Strong short-term economy

Key 6: Strong long-term economy

Key 7: Major policy change

Key 8: No social unrest

Key 9: No scandal

Key 10: No foreign policy or military failure

Key 11: Foreign policy or military success

Key 12: Charismatic incumbent - false

Key 13: Uncharismatic challenger - debatably false

I've left most of those false and would prefer to let Lichtman explain why his keys describe a VP Harris election victory.

If six or more of these 13 keys are false the incumbent party loses. In 2024, the incumbent party in the White House are the Democrats. However, President Joe Biden chose to drop out of the race weeks before the DNC convention in Chicago. Vice President Kamala Harris took Biden's place at the top of the ballot, however, there was no primary challenge and there were no issues at the Democratic convention in August. Also it sort of helps that VP Harris isn't the incumbent President, however, she serves under current President Biden.

Everything else I won't comment on, however, Lichtman has set his keys to at least to four which for him predicts a Democrat win in 2024. However, as you see by my own statement so some select keys I have my doubts.

Yes Trump is divisive so I can understand why charisma could be an issue there. Kamala as the "incumbent", however, is lacking the charisma department herself. 

Let's not forget and even Lichtman might emphasize, who wins in this election isn't up to his keys. It's up to you as the voter so don't take these predictions for granted. Cast your ballot for the candidate of your choice!